Lab Leak Groundhog Day: COVID Origins in 2026 with Worobey, Andersen, and Holmes

With the Trump administration’s newest political persecution of Anthony Fauci and three years after our first lab-leak special, now seemed like a useful time to return to the topic. Fortunately, you do not have to rely on our knowledge of viruses, as we have somehow managed to convince the same three esteemed virologists, Eddie Holmes, Kristian Andersen and Michael Worobey, to come back for an update.

Mike, Kristian and Eddie return and offer us their read on where the scientific evidence on COVID’s origins stands in 2026. They take us through the main lines of evidence and the often overlooked role of the wildlife trade, explaining why the lab-leak story remains so appealing, and how their own assessments have shifted as more evidence has emerged. We also discuss the standard claim that the media suppressed the lab-leak narrative while noting that coverage across both alternative and mainstream outlets remains heavily skewed towards it (and almost entirely detached from the research literature).

Finally, we end on a characteristically positive note by discussing the Trump administration’s attacks on science and the ongoing campaigns against high-profile scientists and public health figures. Our guests describe their experience of committing the heinous offence of following the scientific evidence and arriving at conclusions that contradict the preferred views of polemical politicians and prominent media pundits.

In short, this episode is our modest attempt to drag the topic back towards the science, while also focusing on the price paid by the people who actually conduct the research and care about the evidence. We are not neutral when it comes to the ongoing attacks on science and scientists and do not pretend to be.

Links

• Our guests: Michael Worobey, Kristian Andersen, and Eddie Holmes
• Our previous interview with Worobey, Andersen and Holmes
• Lab Leak Fever with Philipp Markolin
• Our earlier interview with Stuart Neil on SARS-CoV-2
• Sam Harris, Alina Chan and Matt Ridley: Did SARS-CoV-2 Escape from a Lab?
• Bad Boy of Science: Is the COVID Lab Leak Hypothesis Dead?
• Kristian Andersen on his early emails, released messages and changing assessment
• Kristian Andersen’s congressional testimony and document collection
• Kristian’s thread responding to the use of his Slack messages
• Michael Worobey on why his assessment changed
• WHO SAGO’s 2025 assessment of the origins evidence
• The July 2026 Senate release of the Slack messages
• Kevin Drum’s reading of the earlier Slack archive
• The current White House lab-leak page
• The July 2026 Fauci hearing
• Naomi Oreskes on scientific integrity and “ethical pessimism”
• Nature: Climate scientists report online attacks
• Alwine et al. on the harms to scientists, research and pandemic preparedness

Relevant research papers and reviews

• Andersen, K. G., Rambaut, A., Lipkin, W. I., Holmes, E. C., & Garry, R. F. (2020). The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. Nature Medicine, 26(4), 450–452.
• Crits-Christoph, A., Levy, J. I., Pekar, J. E., et al. (2024). Genetic tracing of market wildlife and viruses at the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Cell, 187(19), 5468–5482.
• Holmes, E. C. (2024). The emergence and evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Annual Review of Virology, 11(1), 21–42.
• Liu, W. J., Liu, P., Lei, W., et al. (2023). Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 at the Huanan Seafood Market. Nature, 631(8020), 402–408.
• Pekar, J. E., Magee, A., Parker, E., et al. (2022). The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2. Science, 377(6609), 960–966.
• Pekar, J. E., Moshiri, N., Lemey, P., et al. (2025). Recently reported SARS-CoV-2 genomes suggested to be intermediate between the two early main lineages are instead likely derived. Virus Evolution, 11(1).
• Pekar, J. E., Lytras, S., Ghafari, M., et al. (2025). The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. Cell, 188(12), 3167–3183.
• Temmam, S., Vongphayloth, K., Baquero, E., et al. (2022). Bat coronaviruses related to SARS-CoV-2 and infectious for human cells. Nature, 604(7905), 330–336.
• Worobey, M., Levy, J. I., Malpica Serrano, L., et al. (2022). The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Science, 377(6609), 951–959.
• Xiao, X., Newman, C., Buesching, C. D., Macdonald, D. W., & Zhou, Z.-M. (2021). Animal sales from Wuhan wet markets immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Scientific Reports, 11(1).
• Zhou, H., Ji, J., Chen, X., et al. (2021). Identification of novel bat coronaviruses sheds light on the evolutionary origins of SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses. Cell, 184(17), 4380–4391.

Broader assessments and context

• Ackerman, G., Behlendorf, B., Baum, S., Peterson, H., Wetzel, A., & Halstead, J. (2024). The origin and implications of the COVID-19 pandemic: An expert survey (Technical Report 24-1). Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.
• Alwine, J., Goodrum, F., Banfield, B., et al. (2024). The harms of promoting the lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 origins without evidence. Journal of Virology, 98(9).
• World Health Organization. (2025). Independent assessment of the origins of SARS-CoV-2 from the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens.
• Venter, M., Manuguerra, J.-C., Watson, J. M., et al. (2026). COVID’s origins: What we do and don’t know. Nature, 650(8103), 829–833.